Research shows limited impact on Dutch agriculture from Mercosur agreement

Farmers and non-governmental organisations have protested against the EU-Mercosur trade agreement at the European Parliament in Brussels. Demonstrators fear negative consequences for European agriculture. However, research conducted by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) indicates that the impact on Dutch farmers will remain limited.

The impact of a trade agreement with the Mercosur countries is limited for Dutch agriculture, according to WUR. Siemen van Berkum of Wageningen Economic Research said during a session of the House of Representatives on Wednesday, 10 September 2025, that the negative income effect – if any – would amount by 2040 to an average of €590 for the veal calf producer, €530 for the egg producer and €420 for the cattle farmer when compared to a scenario without altered trade conditions with Mercosur.

Van Berkum explained that the price changes resulting from increased import of South American agricultural products are “particularly low”, with the exception of the beef sector. The effects on the cattle farming industry in the Netherlands are relatively limited as the impact primarily affects the meat cattle industry rather than the dairy sector. Dutch cattle farming is predominantly focused on milk production.

In addition, the Netherlands will have fewer opportunities to market beef and poultry meat. Van Berkum stated that there will be a contraction in the production of both beef and poultry meat in the country.

“The most significant impact is observed in the beef processing industry: the production value is expected to be 15.6% lower, corresponding to €458 million, in 2040. However, the consequences for the production value in the primary cattle sector are minor, because beef production largely comes from dairy cows and there are few specialised beef processing companies in the Netherlands.”

Van Berkum explained that Dutch imports of high-quality beef and poultry meat from Mercosur countries are expected to increase. With regard to exports, an increase in Dutch dairy exports appears possible.

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries includes, among other provisions, arrangements regarding the volumes of agricultural products that may be imported from South America into Europe without tariffs. New tariff quotas have been established for:

• Beef
• Poultry meat
• Pork
• Ethanol
• Rice
• Honey
• Corn
• Cheese
• Milk powder
• Infant formula

In addition, there are supplementary arrangements specifically with Brazil and Paraguay concerning the import of sugar into the EU. For the export of cheese, milk powder and infant formula to the Mercosur countries, tariff quotas have likewise been agreed upon.

WUR has conducted several studies over recent years into the potential effects of the trade agreement on agriculture. While little has changed in the content of the agreement, the external environment has evolved, for instance as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, heightened geopolitical tensions and trade disputes between the US and the rest of the world.

Van Berkum noted that these altered circumstances demonstrate how dependent the Dutch and European economies are on international trade relations.

Tags: imports, poultry meat, Dutch, egg, corn, Trade Agreement, pork, EU-Mercosur, price, veal calf, rice, production value, agriculture, Beef, cattle