Red Sea escalation threatens Bangladesh wheat imports

Fresh tensions around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait are increasing risks to Bangladesh’s wheat imports. The country is heavily dependent on foreign supplies, with domestic production at around 1 mln tons a year against consumption of 7–7.5 mln tons. In the MY 2025/26, Bangladesh imported about 7.35 mln tons of wheat.

Market participants are not yet reporting a grain shortage, but they warn of significant delays in securing vessels and shipping capacity. For some cargoes, available shipping slots have already been pushed back to mid-November, which could tighten supplies in the coming months. Importers estimate that domestic wheat stocks are sufficient for only about 1.5–2 months.

Bab-el-Mandeb is a key part of the Red Sea-Suez Canal route for cargoes from Europe, the Black Sea region and the US East Coast. If safe passage cannot be ensured, vessels have to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding at least 10–15 days to voyages and increasing freight, fuel and insurance costs.

Additional pressure comes from disruptions in the Black Sea region. Bangladesh buys wheat from Ukraine, Russia, Romania, the US and Canada, among other suppliers, but shipping problems in the Black Sea are already complicating direct deliveries. According to importers, some carriers are redirecting cargoes via longer routes and alternative transshipment hubs, which can increase transport costs several-fold.

Wheat and other agricultural shipments from Australia and the US West Coast via Asian routes are currently less exposed to Red Sea disruptions. At the same time, simultaneous problems in the Black Sea and Red Sea are increasing risks to Bangladesh’s food imports and may push the country to diversify suppliers and shipping routes more actively.

Tags: wheat, Bangladesh