Record wheat harvests put pressure on prices: analysts forecast further decline

Despite production cuts in a number of importing countries, the global wheat market remains under pressure from record supply.

Argus Media forecasts that grain prices will continue to decline in the 2025-2026 season, as eight leading exporters will harvest their largest harvests on record, writes The Western Producer.

According to analysts, the total global wheat supply will reach 484 million tons, which is significantly higher than the previous record of 458 million tons. The main exporters, including Ukraine, the United States, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Russia, France and the EU, will provide 421 million tons of the crop.

“The world needs huge demand from key importing countries in North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia to balance this surplus,” said Arthur Portier, senior consultant at Argus Media.

According to him, even the expected increase in imports in the mentioned regions — to 57 million tons compared to 45 million tons last year — will not be able to compensate for the sharp increase in world supply. As a result, ending grain stocks will increase to 75 million tons — the highest level since the MY 2017-2018.

Tags: grain, prices