Record wheat harvest limits price gains in Turkey

Despite the sharp escalation of security risks in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, wheat prices in Turkey have risen only modestly. The main reason is expectations for a record domestic wheat harvest, which is expected to significantly reduce the country’s need for imported grain.

According to market participants, Turkey could harvest nearly 23 mln tons of wheat this season, making it one of the country’s largest crops on record. Ample domestic supplies are already limiting import demand, while buyers are reluctant to secure new cargoes, expecting to rely primarily on locally harvested grain once the harvest is completed.

At the same time, reports of shipping disruptions in the Kerch Strait and increased risks for Black Sea trade have provided some support to the market. CIF Marmara 12.5% protein wheat prices rose to $224/t, up $3/t from the previous week. However, the increase has been much smaller than the gains seen in Chicago and MATIF wheat futures, as the physical market remains well supplied with grain.

Another factor limiting market activity was buyers’ reluctance to book new cargoes of Russian wheat due to uncertainty over shipment schedules. Some sellers also temporarily withdrew their offers while waiting for greater clarity regarding Black Sea logistics.

Tags: prices, wheat, Turkey