Record oilseed crop increases pressure on global prices

USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 by 2.44 mln tons to a record 723.46 mln tons in its September report. This is 22.42 mln tons above the expected 2025/26 level. The global crush forecast was also raised to 611.6 mln tons, while ending stocks were increased to 146.64 mln tons.

USDA made the largest upward revision to the rapeseed crop, with production now forecast at 99.97 mln tons. Higher estimates for Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uruguay drove the increase. Following the report, November canola futures in Winnipeg fell 2.6% to CAD 818/t, while rapeseed futures on MATIF declined 1.3% to €550.75/t.

Global sunflower seed production in 2026/27 is forecast at a record 63.65 mln tons, up 1 mln tons from the previous estimate. Forecasts were raised for Russia to 21 mln tons, the EU to 9.73 mln tons and Kazakhstan to a record 2.7 mln tons. The estimate for Ukraine remained unchanged at 13 mln tons.

In Ukraine, sunflower seed prices have fallen by UAH 6,000–8,000/t over the past month to UAH 18,500–20,000/t delivered to processors, according to market data. Restrictions on maritime exports and damage to processing facilities are adding pressure to the domestic market by reducing demand for raw materials.

USDA also raised its forecast for global soybean production to a record 442.35 mln tons. The US estimate was increased to 123.4 mln tons due to higher forecasts for harvested area and yield. Following the report, November soybean futures in Chicago fell 2.8% to $476.4/t, although high crude oil prices and disruptions to Black Sea exports continue to support oilseed markets.

Tags: prices, soybean, oilseeds, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, global market