Rapeseed prices continue to rise, supported by rising crude oil prices

Despite a significant improvement in the global oilseed balance in the MY 2026/27, in particular an increase in the forecast for global rapeseed production to a record level, rapeseed quotes resumed growth yesterday amid a surge in oil prices caused by the resumption of the war between the US and Iran .

September Brent crude futures rose 10% yesterday to $83.5/barrel (+16% for the week, +1.8% for the month), significantly supporting oilseed markets.

In the July report, USDA experts increased the forecast for global rapeseed production in MY 2026/27 by 0.69 million tons to a record 97.6 million tons (95.57 million tons in MY 2025/26 and 86.29 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for Russia – by 0.4 million tons to 6.4 (5.5) million tons and the US – by 0.27 to 2.48 (2.13) million tons. At the same time, for the EU, due to the increase in sowing areas, the forecast was left at 20.5 (20.5) million tons, despite the dry weather in June, and for Ukraine – at 4.35 (3.5) million tons. Such information should have reduced quotes, but they continued to move in line with oil prices.

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext Paris exchange rose 2.2% yesterday to €527.75/t or $601/t (+2.9% for the week and +1% for the month), but November futures are trading €13/t more expensive.

According to Oil World, in the MY 2025/26, EU countries increased rapeseed processing by 1.2 million tonnes compared to the previous season to a record 26.3 million tonnes due to increased demand for rapeseed oil from the biofuel industry. The Netherlands, Belgium, France, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic increased processing the most.

It is expected that in the MY 2026/27 the EU will increase the area under rapeseed to a record 6.4 million hectares, due to which the harvest will reach 22.4 million tons. Despite this, the processing volumes, according to analysts, will remain at the level of 26.3 million tons. Increasing domestic production will allow reducing rapeseed imports to the EU to 6.53 million tons.

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, November canola futures rose 1.5% yesterday to 789 CAD/t or $558/t (+4% for the week, +3.8% for the month) following oil prices, although weather conditions in Canada remain very favorable for canola crops.

The growth of stock market quotes led to an increase in export prices for rapeseed demand in Ukraine over the last 7 days by $20-25/t to $570-585/t (oil content 42%) or UAH 27,000-27,200/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

The recent heavy shelling of Black Sea ports and terminals is reducing export demand for both rapeseed and oil due to risks, so processors are keeping purchase prices at 26,000–26,500 UAH/t ($510–520/t excluding VAT) delivered to the factory, expecting that farmers will prefer to deliver rapeseed to factories rather than ports.

Demand prices for rapeseed with delivery to the western border of Ukraine increased by €15/t to €480-490/t or $550-575/t with loading on a European train, and with delivery to factories in the Czech Republic or Poland – to €525-535/t. It is worth considering that European factories are provided with raw materials for July and August, so they buy rapeseed with delivery in September, so a sharp increase in prices at the border is also not expected.

After the speculative rise in oil prices stops, we expect rapeseed prices to stabilize, especially against the backdrop of accelerated harvest.

Tags: prices, rapeseed