Rapeseed prices are rising due to delays in shipments from Ukraine and Russia

Global rapeseed prices continued to rise despite another increase in USDA’s forecast for the 2026/27 global crop. Over two days, November rapeseed futures in Paris gained 1.6% to €540.5/t ($623/t), while Winnipeg canola rose 2.9% to 804 CAD/t ($578/t). Prices are being supported by disruptions to supplies from the Black Sea region.

In its August report, USDA raised its forecast for global rapeseed production by 0.5 mln tons to a record 99.08 mln tons. This is 3.4 mln tons above the MY 2025/26  level and 13 mln tons higher than in MY 2024/25. In particular, the forecast for Canada’s canola crop was increased by 0.5 mln tons to 22.5 mln tons, which is expected to boost global supply.

At the same time, the European market is facing delays in rapeseed supplies from Ukraine due to restricted operations at Black Sea ports. Disruptions to shipments from Russia following the suspension of grain terminal operations in the Black Sea region are providing additional support. Low water levels on the Danube and Rhine are also complicating logistics and increasing transportation costs, supporting prices on the EU physical market. Rapeseed bids for delivery to European crushing plants in August-September are currently at €510–520/t.

In Ukraine, crushers are offering around UAH 19.5–21.5 thsd/t for rapeseed with 44% oil content delivered to plants. A significant number of crushers have already secured sufficient raw material for the next two to three months and therefore are in no rush to raise their bids. Meanwhile, exporters have increased prices at domestic elevators to UAH 21–21.5 thsd/t following gains on MATIF. Bids at Danube and Black Sea ports are quoted at $470–490/t, while prices for delivery to terminals at Ukraine’s western border stand at $450–480/t.

The current support for rapeseed prices may prove temporary, as substantial volumes of the new oilseed crop are expected to enter the global market in the coming months. Rising rapeseed supplies and the seasonal increase in soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil production in September-October could encourage importers to delay purchases in anticipation of lower prices, increasing pressure on the market.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, rapeseed