Rain delays corn harvesting in Ukraine, with drying costs potentially reaching $30/t

Prolonged rainfall is complicating corn harvesting in Ukraine and increasing farmers’ costs. Higher grain moisture levels could push additional drying expenses to as much as $30/t, significantly reducing profitability amid low purchase prices. Unfavorable weather conditions may also extend the harvesting campaign into the winter months, according to analysts at PUSK, an agricultural cooperative established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

Ukraine has harvested only around 3.5 mln tons of corn so far, while the bulk of the crop — approximately 25–27 mln tons — remains in the fields. According to analysts, additional grain drying costs could range from $10 to $20/t, reaching $30/t in some cases. Harvesting is likely to slow further, although decisions to leave corn unharvested over winter have not yet become widespread.

PUSK considers the USDA’s forecast of 22 mln tons of Ukrainian corn exports to be overstated, estimating realistic export potential at 17–19 mln tons. From November through March, the US and Ukraine are expected to remain the main corn suppliers to the global market, while shipments from Brazil and Argentina will be limited. Meanwhile, Europe could increase corn imports by 3.5–5 mln tons due to lower domestic production, creating additional opportunities for Ukrainian exporters.

However, favorable global market conditions do not guarantee higher domestic prices. Limited logistics capacity and the accumulation of substantial grain stocks continue to put pressure on the Ukrainian market. According to PUSK, corn purchase prices at ports have already fallen to $160–163/t, with a further decline to $150/t remaining possible.

Analysts note that Ukraine’s current logistics capacity allows for exports of around 1.5 mln tons of corn per month. As a result, domestic prices may remain low even if global quotations rise, due to excess supply. PUSK expects a recovery in purchase prices to $170–180/t CPT-port no earlier than January–February.

Tags: harvesting, grain drying, Ukraine, corn