Rabobank forecasts a rise in milk prices in Europe by the end of 2026

Milk prices in Europe could rise in autumn and winter 2026/27 due to an expected decline in production and higher costs for farmers. Rabobank expects the market to gradually rebalance following a period of strong supply and declining prices.

EU milk deliveries increased by 3.7% in the first half of 2026, while the average milk price stood at 42.3 euro cents/kg in June and was trending lower. However, the situation could change in the second half of the year as production is expected to decline, with deliveries in the final quarter potentially falling below late-2025 levels.

A weaker feed supply is putting additional pressure on producers. Drought has affected forage crops, while Europe’s corn harvest is expected to decline by 6–7%. At the same time, higher diesel and fertilizer costs are increasing milk production expenses.

Demand for dairy products remains relatively resilient. EU dairy exports increased by 8% in volume terms in the first half of the year, although export revenues fell by 2% due to lower international dairy commodity prices. Prices for skimmed milk powder and whey have also shown some recovery recently.

Against this backdrop, Rabobank expects European milk prices to strengthen toward the end of 2026. The need to offset higher feed, energy, fertilizer and other production costs could become one of the main factors supporting prices during autumn and winter.

Tags: rise, EU, prices, Rabobank