Problems with Ukrainian exports push wheat prices higher in Poland
Wheat prices at Polish ports have moved higher amid growing risks to grain supplies from the Black Sea region. On August 21, bids at the ports of Gdansk and Gdynia reached PLN 1,000/t, while the highest prices on Poland’s domestic market were around PLN 900/t a day earlier.
Mateusz Palejko, an analyst at Agri Commodity Experts, cited expectations of a significant decline in Ukrainian wheat exports in the MY 2026/27 as one of the factors supporting the Polish market. He estimates shipments could fall to just 5–10 mln tons, compared with 14 mln tons last season and 15.7 mln tons in 2024/25 MY.
The main reason for the expected decline in Ukrainian exports is the effective blockade of the Greater Odesa ports, which are the key gateway for large-scale grain shipments. Redirecting cargoes to the Danube and overland routes cannot fully compensate for the loss of deep-sea port capacity.
As a result, restrictions on Ukrainian seaborne exports could increase pressure on EU transport infrastructure, particularly in Poland, as some grain flows may be redirected by rail and road. At the same time, reduced availability of Ukrainian wheat on the global market is providing additional support to prices at European ports.
A further escalation in the Black Sea remains an additional risk for the grain market. According to Palejko, if export disruptions also spread to Russian deep-sea ports, the market could face a double supply squeeze from the Black Sea region, potentially providing further support to wheat prices.
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