Price of Ukrainian corn fell by $13/t in a month due to weak demand from Turkey

Ukrainian corn prices have fallen since the end of May due to weakening demand from Turkey, which was one of the key factors supporting the market. After the holiday period, Turkish buyers did not return to active purchases, and the market continued to fall against the backdrop of importers’ caution and continued pressure on prices. Fastmarkets writes about this.

According to analysts, corn quotes FOB Ukraine decreased to $227/t as of June 17 from $240/t on May 25. Thus, in less than a month, the price fell by $13/t.

During the same period, the price of corn CIF Marmara Sea (Turkey) for August shipment decreased to $244/t, which is $14.5/t less than at the end of May.

At the same time, the domestic market of Ukraine decreased more slowly. CPT Ukraine quotes on June 18 were $224/t versus $233/t on May 25, a decrease of $9/t.

“There is simply no buyer on the market. For a long time, Turkey was the only direction that supported prices, but demand has slowed down. Even after returning from the holidays, buyers remain on the sidelines,” said one of the Fastmarkets traders.

The slowdown in purchases coincided with national holidays in Turkey at the end of May. However, after the end of the holiday period, the expected recovery in demand did not occur.

According to the State Customs Service, from July 1, 2025 to June 12, 2026, Turkey imported about 5.7 million tons of Ukrainian corn, which is almost 30% of total Ukrainian corn exports in the current season.

“The situation is especially important for Ukraine, because Turkey is a key buyer. Without Turkey, it is difficult for the market to find support,” said another trader.

On April 17, Turkey announced a quota for the import of 3 million tons of corn, which will be valid until July 31. 1.72 million tons have already been officially registered. Taking into account the unknown volumes of already contracted but not yet cleared corn, potential demand by the end of July could be about 1 million tons.

Weak demand is also reflected in trading activity. Market participants report a significant gap between sellers’ and buyers’ prices and a small number of concluded deals.

“This is visible in the spread: buyers’ requests are significantly lower than sellers’ offers, and activity is minimal. The old crop is effectively dead,” said a trader.

Despite the drop in prices, Ukrainian corn still remains relatively expensive on a FOB basis compared to alternative countries of origin. This further restrains demand, even despite favorable freight to destinations such as Egypt and Spain.

Market participants believe that further price dynamics will depend on the return of buyers.

“We need to wait for demand to appear. Until then, sellers may have to lower prices further to stimulate purchases,” one trader said.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian corn exports remain the slowest in at least a decade. Between September and May, Ukraine exported only 18.4 million tons of corn.

The overall export forecast for the season is about 26 million tons, which means there are another 7-8 million tons of corn for export between June and September. The new crop is not expected on the market before October.

For comparison, over the past five years, Ukraine has exported an average of about 1 million tons of corn per month during these months.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices