Poland could increase imports of Ukrainian rapeseed oil despite rapeseed ban

Poland’s ban on Ukrainian rapeseed imports does not rule out an increase in imports of processed products, particularly rapeseed oil. The Polish market could import finished oil directly from Ukraine or from other EU countries that process Ukrainian rapeseed, according to InfoGrain agricultural market analyst Mirosław Marciniak.

Growing imports of rapeseed oil could increase competition for Polish processors. If imported oil is cheaper, domestic rapeseed crushing could decline, which in turn would reduce demand for Polish-grown rapeseed.

This factor is particularly important for the biodiesel industry, which remains the largest consumer of rapeseed oil in Poland. Buyers of feedstock for biofuel production can choose the most competitive offers regardless of their country of origin. Therefore, even restrictions on direct imports of Ukrainian oil would not necessarily prevent it from reaching the Polish market through other EU countries.

According to the analyst, Poland’s rapeseed oil imports increased by around 130 thsd tons last season compared with the previous season. Trade flows between Poland and Germany have also changed: while Poland exported rapeseed to the German market several years ago, it now imports more rapeseed from Germany than it exports there.

Further movements in Polish rapeseed prices will largely depend on MATIF futures, exchange rates and rapeseed oil prices. According to the analyst, high oil prices allow processors to pay more for raw materials, while rising imports of finished oil could reduce crushing margins and limit domestic demand for rapeseed.

Tags: Ukraine, Poland, rapeseed, imports, rapeseed oil