Pakistan may raise wheat imports to 1.5 mln tons as prices surge

Pakistan is returning to significant wheat imports in 2026 after a two-year break. The government has already approved purchases of up to 1 mln tons, but according to USDA FAS, current domestic market conditions suggest the country may need around 1.5 mln tons in the current marketing year.

The main driver is a sharp increase in flour prices. Over the past four months, prices have risen by 13%, from $422/t to $476/t, while in August 2026 they were nearly 60% higher than a year earlier.

FAS links the price volatility to changes in government procurement policy. After provincial authorities reduced traditional public purchases, farmers were forced to sell grain more quickly to private traders, while a larger share of stocks moved under the control of private intermediaries.

Despite the estimated potential need for 1.5 mln tons, FAS currently maintains its 2026/27 import forecast at 1 mln tons. For imports to exceed that level, the pace of tenders would need to accelerate significantly before the new wheat harvest begins in March.

Pakistan’s wheat production in 2026/27 is forecast at 29 mln tons, slightly higher year-on-year but 3 mln tons below the 2024/25 level. Uncertainty over procurement policy and weak incentives for farmers could also lead to a reduction in wheat area in 2027/28.

Tags: prices, Pakistan, wheat, imports