Global grain trade to fall 3.5% amid logistics disruptions — FAO

Global grain trade in the 2026/27 season is forecast to decline by 3.5% from the record level of the previous season to 505.8 mln tons. According to FAO, the main reason is expected to be lower wheat and corn exports due to constrained Black Sea shipping and insufficient capacity on alternative transport routes.

Amid logistics disruptions and weather risks, global grain prices rose sharply in September. The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 5.1% month-on-month and was 17.2% higher than a year earlier. Wheat prices rose by 6.3%, while corn prices increased by 5.6%.

FAO attributed the rise in wheat prices to Black Sea logistics constraints and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of planting. Corn prices were supported by concerns over US yields, reduced export availability from Brazil and disruptions to Black Sea trade.

Global cereal production in 2026 is forecast at 2.979 bln tons, down 2.1% from 2025, although this would still be the second-largest crop on record. The wheat production forecast was raised to 813.9 mln tons, while the outlook for coarse grains was lowered to 1.612 bln tons due to weaker yield prospects in the EU and the United States.

Global cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast at 950 mln tons, while the stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline to 31.7% from 32.0% a year earlier. FAO also noted that elevated freight rates, firmer fertilizer prices and persistent logistics disruptions continue to increase uncertainty in global agricultural markets.

Tags: global market, corn, grain, prices, wheat, logistics, FAO