Pakistan improves wheat harvest outlook thanks to better input availability

Pakistan’s outlook for the Rabi cropping season has improved amid better availability of key agricultural inputs, creating favorable conditions for higher wheat production. According to the country’s latest Economic Update and Outlook, timely government support and smoother supply chains are strengthening farmers’ capacity to deliver a stronger harvest in the 2025/26 season.

The government has set a wheat production target of 29.68 million tonnes, to be harvested from an estimated 9.65 million hectares. Improved access to certified seeds, fertilizers, irrigation water and farm credit has helped accelerate sowing activities, despite persistent pressure from higher input costs.

A significant factor behind the improved outlook is the expansion of agricultural lending. During July–November of the current fiscal year, banks disbursed PKR 1,097.6 billion in agricultural loans, marking an increase of 18.6% year on year. This has enabled farmers to finance input purchases, mechanization and other essential farm operations.

Fertilizer availability has also strengthened. Urea offtake during October–November reached 1.17 million tonnes, up 15.6% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, imports of agricultural machinery rose by 27.3% to USD 58 million, supporting higher mechanization levels and improved on-farm efficiency.

Officials note that coordinated efforts by the federal and provincial governments have played a key role in stabilizing input supply and credit flows. However, weather conditions—particularly rainfall patterns and temperature fluctuations—remain a critical risk factor. If favorable conditions persist, higher wheat output could bolster Pakistan’s food security, ease domestic price pressures and reduce reliance on imports.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat, crop forecast