Onion production in India’s largest growing region could fall by 30–40%

Onion production in Maharashtra, India’s largest onion-producing state, could decline by 30–40% due to adverse weather conditions. Erratic rainfall, drought and soil moisture shortages linked to El Niño have negatively affected onion cultivation and delayed new-crop supplies reaching the market. These conditions could lead to further increases in domestic and export prices.

Maharashtra accounts for more than half of India’s total onion exports, meaning that reduced production in the state could significantly affect international trade. Malaysia is particularly vulnerable, as it sources more than half of its onion imports from India. According to Malaysia’s Federal Agricultural Marketing Authority (FAMA), the country’s annual onion consumption is estimated at around 750 thsd tons.

Domestic onion prices in India currently stand at approximately 60 rupees/kg, while export offers range from $500 to $700/t, depending on the destination. Seasonal demand ahead of the Deepavali festival on November 8 is adding further pressure to the market. Exporters warn that limited supplies and stronger purchasing activity could push procurement costs higher for importing countries.

India produces around 30 mln tons of onions annually and exported approximately 1.5 mln tons of fresh onions last year. Meanwhile, India’s Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution reported that new-crop onions from Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan had already begun reaching the market. The government expects supplies to improve gradually in the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, market participants do not anticipate a rapid recovery in production across the main affected areas. Recent rainfall could improve crop conditions after Deepavali, but a more substantial recovery is expected only during the next monsoon season in July–August 2027. Until then, Indian onion export prices are likely to remain sensitive to actual production volumes, market arrivals and demand from major importing countries.

Tags: India, onion