North Africa’s wheat production to increase by 15% in MY 2025/26

North Africa’s wheat production is forecast to reach 20 mln tons in the MY 2025/26, which ends in July, up 15% from the previous season. According to the latest FAO report, the harvest will also be 14.2% above the region’s five-year average, although production trends vary significantly across individual countries.

Morocco is expected to record the strongest recovery, with wheat production rising nearly 43% to 5 mln tons, supported by more favorable weather and improved rainfall distribution. Algeria’s wheat crop is projected to increase by 16% to 3.5 mln tons, while Tunisia and Libya are expected to harvest smaller crops.

Egypt, meanwhile, is on track to produce more than 10 mln tons of wheat for the first time. FAO forecasts the country’s harvest at 10.2 mln tons, up 7% from the previous season. The increase is mainly driven by an expansion of wheat area to 1.58 mln hectares, nearly 252 thsd hectares more than a year earlier.

Government support has also contributed to the larger crop. Farmers received subsidized seed of high-yielding wheat varieties, while the guaranteed procurement price was increased to 2,500 Egyptian pounds per ardeb (150 kg), encouraging additional wheat planting.

In addition, around 75% of the wheat area was cultivated using modern farming practices, including laser land leveling, improved soil management, and other resource-efficient technologies. According to Egypt’s Ministry of Agriculture, these measures increased yields by approximately 20%.

Despite the production recovery, North Africa will remain one of the world’s largest wheat-importing regions. Between 2020 and 2025, the region imported nearly 25 mln tons of wheat annually. However, the larger domestic harvest is expected to reduce import demand and lower wheat import costs.

Tags: Egypt, wheat, Africa, Libia, Morocco, crop forecast, Algeria, Tunisia