Wheat imports expose weaknesses in Pakistan’s grain policy

The Pakistani government plans to import 1 mln tons of wheat to replenish strategic reserves after concluding that existing stocks are insufficient to meet provincial demand. The move is particularly surprising because Punjab, the country’s largest wheat-producing province, has also requested additional supplies. The decision comes just three months after harvest, despite earlier government claims that a 29.8 mln-ton crop and more than 2 mln tons of carryover stocks would be enough to satisfy domestic demand.

Analysts believe the situation highlights serious shortcomings in crop estimates and the management of strategic grain reserves. Despite the absence of exports to Afghanistan and weak demand from the feed industry, domestic wheat prices have climbed from 3,300 to 4,700 Pakistani rupees per 40 kg, rising above import parity. This points to a significant imbalance between supply and demand.

Experts attribute the shortage to lower yields caused by reduced phosphate fertilizer use, heat waves, and crop lodging during the final stages of growth. In addition, many farmers, having suffered financial losses in previous seasons, decided to retain part of their harvest instead of selling immediately. Private traders and investors followed a similar strategy, further tightening market supplies.

The proposed imports have revived farmers’ concerns about a repeat of 2024, when imports of 3.59 mln tons triggered a sharp collapse in domestic wheat prices and heavy financial losses for producers. Farmer groups argue that harvest-time prices should be at least equal to import parity to offset rising production costs, including diesel, electricity, fertilizers, and crop protection products.

The authors of the analysis call for a comprehensive overhaul of Pakistan’s wheat policy. They recommend allowing unrestricted wheat exports during harvest, maintaining strategic reserves of at least 4 mln tons purchased at market prices, and recognizing the role of private grain stockists in stabilizing the market. In their view, such reforms are essential to prevent future supply crises while balancing the interests of farmers and consumers.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat