El Niño could cost Africa up to $20 bln and increase risks for the agricultural sector

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that the emerging El Niño climate event could cause economic losses of US$10-20 bln across Africa. According to the bank, GDP growth in the hardest-hit countries could slow by 1-2%, despite Africa’s economy being forecast to expand by 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80% probability that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, while the likelihood of the event continuing through November exceeds 90%. The phenomenon is expected to be moderate to strong, affecting weather patterns across many regions of the world.

The AfDB noted that the previous El Niño event in 2023-2024 brought severe drought to Southern Africa and widespread flooding to East Africa. These weather extremes reduced agricultural production, pushed food prices higher, and lowered rural incomes. The bank estimates that African farmers could lose about US$327 mln in income this year due to weather-related disruptions.

Beyond agriculture, the fishing sector is also expected to suffer, with productivity projected to decline by 1-4% because of warmer ocean temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. Governments are also likely to face higher spending on disaster response, infrastructure repairs, and emergency assistance, diverting funds from healthcare, education, and other long-term development priorities.

The AfDB plans to review the potential impact of El Niño on its investment portfolio in September and help African countries secure additional funding from international climate funds. However, financing remains far below actual needs. According to the United Nations, developing countries will require around US$365 bln annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change, while current international funding for adaptation remains significantly lower.

Tags: drought, Africa