Morocco may harvest more wheat in 2026/27, but the import market is far from disappearing

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At the start of the 2026/27 season, global grain market is focused on North Africa. Morocco and Algeria are expected to harvest one of their largest wheat crops of the past five seasons thanks to favorable weather. Gov’ts across the region started to support domestic grain purchases and regulate imports more restrict, but for short time.

Meanwhile, Morocco remains structurally dependent on imports. Even a strong crop may not be enough to reduce wheat imports as sharply as many traders currently expect.

Morocco shows some of the highest y/y wheat production volatility among other wheat producers.

Perhaps the most underestimated factor is Morocco’s decision to rebuild domestic wheat stocks. Since 2022/23, Morocco domestic stocks were only at 1-2 months of domestic consumption. Before that, the country often stored more than 5 M mt of wheat, i.e., 5-6 months of demand.

Now this country despite the stronger 2026/27 harvest, plans to increase the stocks up to 6 months of consumption. Domestic processors are expected to purchase 2-3 M mt of local wheat during June-July.

Competition for wheat exports to Moroccan will intensify in 2026/27.  The European Union remains the dominant wheat supplier to Morocco. Inside the EU, the main competition historically comes from France and Germany.

Canada and russia also continue fighting for market share. Ukraine, meanwhile, is still largely out from the Moroccan wheat market despite roughly 30% share before the war.

As a result, competition for Morocco’s  wheat imports may increasingly intensify directly between France and russia. Canada may gradually weaken because of expected crop pressure and rising shipments into northern US states.

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Tags: wheat, imports, Morocco, crop forecast