Markets close lower. Monday, March 14, 2022

The bad news that the fighting was moving to western Ukraine, and then the hopeful news of talks between Russia and Ukraine created a very choppy grain market today. When talking stopped today, the two countries agreed to resume the discussion tomorrow. Meanwhile, the bombing continues.

Two additional factors that developed today were both negative for the grain markets. First, the USDA weekly Export Sales Report released this morning was disappointing for corn and wheat but came in about as expected for soybeans. Second is that the weather forecasts for both South America and the Corn Belt look more favorable than Friday.

At the close today, May corn futures were 14¢ lower, soybean futures closed down 5¢ old and down 10¢ new. Wheat futures were very volatile today with CBOT wheat closing down 10¢, Kansas City wheat was up 10¢, and Minneapolis wheat was down 2¢.

Crude oil was down $7 to $9 per barrel today and is now down $30 from last week and right at chart support.

Worth noting on your charts is that on the last day of trade, March corn futures expired at $7.28, March soybean futures at $16.87, and the March CBOT wheat at $10.90.

Tomorrow, we get the monthly National Oilseed Processors Association report. We’ll be watching to see if the slowdown in soybean crush in the U.S. continues, and also the monthly change in soybean oil inventories.

After trading sharply lower in early trade, corn and wheat are lower, but well off the early lows posted last night, while soybeans are mostly higher. The USDA Exports Inspections report was disappointing for corn and wheat and about what was expected for soybeans. Corn exports last week were 45.1 million bushels, wheat 10.4 million bushels, and soybeans 28.4 million bushels.

The March contracts go off today, so that will be an important price point to watch on the daily and weekly continuation charts.

May corn last trade is at $7.42 with key chart support at last week’s low of $7.29; May soybeans last trade is at $16.76 with support at $16.67. May CBOT wheat is down 8 cents at $10.98 with support at the early low at $10.64.

Crude oil remains under pressure trading down over $7 per barrel.

The key to watch on a day like this is, first, where prices close, and, second, what cash basis bids do. Also watch the May to July spreads.

Grain markets turn mostly lower today as talks resume between Russia and Ukraine. Last night prices initially surged higher with the rapidly expanding war into the key crop areas of western Ukraine. Another bullish factor was the announcement in Argentina that they would suspend soybean meal and oil exports until they put a new and higher export tax in place.

The headline news is creating a very choppy market day to day. Volatility remains high.

May corn trading had a range of 21¢ with the last trade down 10¢. May CBOT soybeans are already showing a trading range of 30¢, with futures now up 7¢. Wheat futures are sharply lower, down 21¢ to 24¢.

In the outside markets, crude oil is down $5.50 per barrel, the U.S. stock market is sharply higher, and livestock futures are mixed in early trading with cattle higher and hogs lower.

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Tags: prices, soybean futures, corn futures, wheat futures, Market, crude oil