MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, August 11 – 18

UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (August 4 – 11, 2025).

Subscribe to Black Sea & Danube Grain Report and Black Sea & Danube Oilseed Report for the detailed market coverage.

Black Sea & Danube region:

• Adverse weather can hinder high yields of spring crops
• Shift in area distribution by crop continues in 2025/26
• Prices are stable due to growing Black Sea supply and freight volatility, but lower quality supports flat-to-firmer values
• Wheat quality damage from rains is larger than first estimates
• Constanta Port is shortlisted for a 20–30% stock-exchange listing
• Sunflower drought resistance in Serbia and yield losses in Hungary
• Deferred demand and the risk of lower SFS crop will support prices for the SFO
• Competition between Ukraine and Russia will intensify in India due to increased SFO supply

Ukraine:

• Export duties on soybeans and rapeseed may increase domestic processing; however, the law on duties has not yet been signed
• The most pessimistic forecasts failed in Ukraine. Rapeseed crop more 3 M mt
• How long will barley steal early feed demand? Until the massive corn harvest in the Black Sea?
• China’s demand for Ukrainian barley is growing
• Black Sea & Danube: exports will rebound from the July floor as harvest moves beyond the drought belt and cash needs promote bigger farmers selling
• Freight bias mildly higher as owners hold rates against limited cargo

Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.

Tags: Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean, Black Sea region