Lower export duties allow Argentina to increase wheat shipments

Argentina is strengthening its position in the global wheat market through gradual reductions in export duties, improving the competitiveness of its grain. Against the backdrop of a strong harvest and disruptions to wheat shipments from the Black Sea region, Argentine exporters are gaining additional opportunities to expand sales. According to StoneX analysts, Argentine wheat is becoming more attractive to international buyers thanks to competitive FOB prices.

Argentina’s wheat production in the 2026/27 season is estimated at approximately 23.4 mln tons, significantly exceeding initial forecasts, although remaining below the previous record of 27.8 mln tons. A strong harvest combined with a lower export tax burden allows Argentine traders to offer wheat at more competitive prices compared with other major exporters.

According to StoneX analyst Raphael Bulascoschi, lower export duties have directly improved the price competitiveness of Argentine wheat in the global market. Additional support for exports comes from disruptions to maritime shipping through the Black Sea, which are restricting Russian wheat supplies. As a result, some importers are shifting toward alternative suppliers, with Argentina gaining a competitive advantage.

Brazil remains one of the main buyers of Argentine wheat, traditionally relying on supplies from its neighboring country. However, further export prospects will largely depend on weather conditions. Heavy rainfall associated with El Niño could negatively affect grain quality during harvest, creating additional risks for flour mills and importers.

Despite weather-related risks, lower export duties and ample grain supplies are creating favorable conditions for expanding Argentine wheat exports. If disruptions to Black Sea shipments persist, Argentina could strengthen its presence in markets that previously relied heavily on Russian wheat. However, actual export volumes will depend on crop quality, global demand, and further price competition.

Tags: export, wheat, Argentina