Low demand from processors puts pressure on soybean and rapeseed prices in Ukraine

In Ukraine, the rapeseed market has always been dominated by exporters who bought up to 95% of the crop, while in the soybean market, processing volumes have gradually increased in recent years. However, the military invasion of the Russian Federation changed the situation, and it is difficult for processors to restore processing volumes against the background of a drop in demand for meal and pulp.

As the export of rape through the Black Sea ports resumed, the purchase prices for rape in the ports rose to $460-475/t or UAH 17,000-17,300/t, which supports the prices of soybeans and sunflowers.

Prices for GMO soybeans with delivery to the factory remain at the level of UAH 13,000-13,500/t, which increases competition with exporters who offer UAH 14,500-15,000/t or $355-390/t for it at the port. Over the past week, processors have raised prices for non-GMO soybeans by UAH 500/t to UAH 14,000-14,500/t with delivery to the factory, as export demand prices for supplies to the western border have risen to $480-490/t.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, November soybean futures rose 0.8% to $536.9/t yesterday, but fell 1.8% for the week overall amid increased new crop offers.

According to the USDA, during the two weeks of the new season, the US exported 912,700 tons, compared to 503,000 tons last year. However, export sales remain low due to active selling of the old crop by Argentine farmers.

China needs to import an average of 1.86 million tonnes of soybeans each week to meet the USDA forecast of 97 million tonnes, but the pace of purchases is much lower and could slow amid increased canola supplies from Canada.

• November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange were down 0.7% yesterday at CAD786.5/t or $593/t (-7.7% on the month) as a weaker Canadian dollar added pressure on European canola quotes .
• November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF fell 1% to €571.5/t or $573.12/t from Monday, losing 5.8% for the week under pressure from increased supply.

COCERAL experts reduced the forecast for the production of oil crops in the EU in 2022 compared to August estimates by 900 thousand tons to 31.3 million tons, in particular soybeans – by 400 thousand tons to 2.78 million tons, sunflower – by 1.7 million t to 9 million t, which is partially offset by an increase in the rapeseed crop by 1.1 million t to 19.5 million t.

The decrease in production will support the prices of oilseeds on the EU market, especially in view of the decrease in offers from Ukraine due to the reduction of the sunflower harvest.

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower, prices, soybean, rapeseed