Land for biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030

Global biofuel production could rise by 68% by 2030, from 105 mln tons of oil equivalent to 176 mln tons. According to Chatham House, the main driver will be the expansion of biofuel blending mandates in Brazil, China, the US and Indonesia.

If the proposed mandates are fully implemented, the amount of land needed to grow biofuel feedstocks could more than double. Around 36 mln ha of additional agricultural land could be required.

Such expansion would intensify competition for land between food and energy crops. Chatham House warns that this could reduce food crop production, increase demand for fertilizers and raise risks to food security.

Growing biofuel demand is already affecting the use of oilseeds. More than 30% of Canada’s canola crop is used for renewable diesel and other biofuels, equivalent to roughly one in every three acres.

In the longer term, growth in renewable diesel, SAF and other low-carbon fuels could become a key driver of demand for canola and other oilseeds, increasingly influencing land allocation and cropping patterns.

Tags: China, Indonesia, Brazil, canola, oilseeds, rapeseed, USA, biofuel