Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest to decline as farmers shift to more profitable oilseeds

Kazakhstan is expected to see a reduction in wheat production in the 2025/26 season as many farmers switched part of their acreage to more profitable oilseed crops. According to a report by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), below-average temperatures and excessive rainfall also hindered harvesting, further pressuring output.

Wheat production is forecast at 15.5 million tonnes — one million tonnes less than last year. The adverse weather has raised concerns about potential crop damage and lower quality, and in some regions the harvest was significantly delayed. As a result, the availability of feed-grade wheat may rise.

In line with lower production, Kazakhstan’s wheat exports are projected to fall to 8.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.6 million tonnes year-on-year. At the same time, new logistics routes continue to open opportunities for diversifying export destinations. From May to September, Kazakhstan shipped 17,000 tonnes of wheat to Vietnam using an uninterrupted container corridor, a model that authorities plan to expand through transport subsidies.

Kazakhstan has also made notable inroads into new markets. In September, local media reported the first-ever shipment of Kazakh wheat flour to the United States — around 50 tonnes delivered to New York, now available on Amazon. Meanwhile, exports of wheat and barley-based feed meals to China have surged thanks to competitive pricing and favorable duty-free access.

Growing demand from China has triggered a rapid expansion of feed meal production capacity in Kazakhstan. By early July 2025, 76 companies producing wheat-based feed meal and 67 producing barley-based feed meal were registered to export to the Chinese market, with new facilities reportedly opening almost every month.

Tags: Kazakhstan, export, wheat, crop forecast