Kazakhstan expects a smaller grain harvest than last year

Kazakhstan is expected to harvest a smaller grain crop in 2026 due to moisture deficits across the country’s central and eastern regions. According to analysts at the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, insufficient rainfall has negatively affected crop development and is expected to reduce grain yields compared with last year.

Spring wheat is currently at the tillering-to-heading stage, barley is at heading-to-flowering, while linseed is at the budding to early flowering stage. Thunderstorms brought rainfall to most northern regions last week, partially replenishing soil moisture reserves, but precipitation remained insufficient in several key production areas.

Weather forecasters expect unstable conditions with thunderstorms and strong winds across northern, central, and eastern Kazakhstan in the coming days. During the second half of the week, hot and dry weather is forecast to return, with daytime temperatures rising to 28–34°C, potentially increasing stress on crops.

Trading activity on the domestic grain market remains subdued. Most farmers have already sold the bulk of last season’s crop, while those still holding grain are delaying sales in anticipation of higher prices as the outlook for the new harvest deteriorates.

Despite limited market activity, prices for most grades of milling wheat increased by about 1,000 tenge per ton last week. Meanwhile, prices for premium Grade 3 wheat with more than 30% gluten and for barley remained unchanged, indicating a cautious market response to the first estimates of the 2026 harvest.

Tags: Kazakhstan, wheat, crop forecast