Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?
From disease to drought, the 2025 crop has been thrown a curveball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month.
USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre. But southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network.
Further development of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be in the spotlight of the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV conference, taking place on April 22–23 in Kyiv. The event will focus on strategic directions for the agricultural sector through 2030, including investments, energy independence, processing, and exports of high-value products.
Join strategic discussions and networking with industry leaders to gain актуальна insights, discover new business opportunities, and build partnerships with key market players.
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