Iran war boosts US agribusiness profits and improves 2026 outlooks

Rising oil prices amid the Iran war have significantly impacted U.S. agricultural markets, pushing soybean oil prices to their highest level in more than three years. This has provided a strong tailwind for major oilseed processors such as Bunge Global and Archer Daniels Midland, which are seeing soybean crush margins reach their highest levels since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Higher profitability is helping companies offset increased costs for energy, processing, and logistics, while also cushioning the impact of trade tensions and global supply disruptions. In addition, higher biofuel blending mandates announced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are boosting demand for oilseed products and prompting analysts to raise their 2026 profit outlooks for agribusiness firms.

In particular, Bunge Global has raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to $9–9.5 per share, up from the previous $7.5–8 range, following strong first-quarter results. At the same time, rising global grain prices have encouraged farmers to sell corn and soybeans they had previously held back due to weak prices, increasing trading and processing volumes.

However, risks remain significant. According to CEO Greg Heckman, the war has materially disrupted global trade flows, logistics costs, and supply chains. The conflict is expected to continue affecting fuel and fertilizer prices and may also influence crop planting decisions in the next season.

Despite strong profits, further expansion of processing capacity is limited. While biofuel demand has driven the largest-ever expansion of soybean crushing in the U.S., the sector is already operating near maximum capacity. High construction costs, including expensive steel and aluminum, as well as elevated interest rates, are discouraging new projects, which typically take three to four years to complete.

Meanwhile, other market players are also reporting growth. Syngenta Group posted higher sales and profits in the first quarter, supported by strong performance in China and improved efficiency. The company, which competes with Corteva, BASF, and Bayer, increased revenue by 2% to $6.4 billion, while EBITDA rose by 5% to $1.4 billion, reflecting steady demand for crop protection products and seeds.