India’s rice production to decline by 7 mln tons amid weakest monsoon in nearly 20 years

India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has experienced its weakest monsoon since 2009, threatening to reduce the country’s rice harvest. In 2026, rainfall was approximately 15% below normal due to the impact of El Niño. According to USDA FAS, rice production in MY 2026/27 is forecast to decline to 147 mln tons from 154 mln tons last season, a decrease of 7 mln tons, or 4.5%.

Lower production is attributed to insufficient rainfall in key rice-growing regions and a reduction in planted area. India accounts for more than 40% of global rice exports, meaning that weaker crop prospects could significantly affect international trade. However, substantial government stocks are currently allowing the country to maintain export shipments.

According to the latest USDA estimates, India’s rice exports could decline by around 4% to 24 mln tons in 2027. Reduced supplies and rising domestic prices are increasing the risk of higher global rice prices, particularly for countries in Asia and Africa that rely heavily on Indian shipments.

Further developments will depend on the harvest and New Delhi’s export policy. If supply shortages intensify, the government may introduce additional export restrictions to contain domestic prices. This could push global rice prices higher and shift demand toward alternative suppliers, particularly Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan.

Tags: rice, India