India’s rice and corn production to fall by 12 mln tons due to weak monsoon

A weak and erratic monsoon is worsening the outlook for India’s grain production in 2026/27. According to FAS USDA, insufficient rainfall could reduce both planted area and yields of key crops.

India’s rice production forecast has been lowered to 147 mln tons from 154 mln tons in 2025/26. This would represent a decline of 7 mln tons, or about 4.5%. At the same time, the rice export forecast remains unchanged at 25 mln tons.

Large domestic stocks are expected to allow India to maintain high export volumes. The government continues to release surplus rice onto the domestic market in an effort to bring state inventories down to more manageable levels. This is also helping Indian rice remain competitive on the global market.

A sharper decline is expected for corn. FAS USDA lowered its 2026/27 production forecast to 50 mln tons from 55 mln tons a season earlier, reflecting expectations of reduced planted area and lower yields due to insufficient rainfall.

Against this backdrop, India’s corn exports in 2026/27 are forecast at 1.5 mln tons, down from 2.5 mln tons in the previous season, a decline of 40%. The 2026 monsoon has been highly erratic: a weak June was followed by improved rainfall in July and another slowdown in August, while precipitation in the second half of the season is expected to remain below normal.

Tags: weather conditions, corn, rice, India, monsoon