India to more than double soybean imports as domestic crop declines

India could increase soybean imports to 500 thsd tons in 2026/27 due to lower domestic production. The USDA office in New Delhi raised its import forecast by more than twofold from its previous estimate of 200 thsd tons, while cutting its soybean production forecast to 9.6 mln tons.

Soybean area is forecast at 11.4 mln ha, with the average yield estimated at 0.91 t/ha. Production has been affected by irregular monsoon rainfall, which disrupted planting and forced some replanting in Maharashtra. Farmers have also shifted acreage from soybeans to cotton and corn due to more attractive returns.

Corn acreage is expanding particularly rapidly, supported by higher returns and government policies promoting ethanol production. At the same time, increased use of corn for biofuel is encouraging the poultry sector to use more soybean meal. USDA expects soybean feed use to be 25% above its previous estimate of 900 thsd tons.

Against the backdrop of a smaller crop, India’s soybean oil production forecast has been cut by 6%, from 1.7 mln to 1.6 mln tons. Meanwhile, soybean oil consumption in 2026/27 is forecast at 7.5 mln tons, up 3% year-on-year. Its competitiveness is being supported by lower global prices compared with palm oil.

India’s soybean oil imports in 2026/27 are forecast at 5.6 mln tons. Brazil and Argentina are expected to remain the main suppliers, offering competitively priced soybean oil. India has also imported a record 140 thsd tons of soybean oil from China amid surplus supplies in the Chinese market.

Tags: soybean, India, imports