India could boost wheat exports as global buyers diversify supplies

India has an opportunity to significantly increase wheat exports following the gradual easing of export restrictions and as major importers seek to diversify their sources of supply. According to ASSOCHAM, the country’s wheat export opportunity could exceed $1.5 billion.

A record harvest has created room for higher exports. India produced 120.7 mln tons of wheat in 2025/26, retaining its position as the world’s second-largest producer. Government stocks stood at 51.3 mln tons as of May 28, compared with the prescribed buffer requirement of 27.58 mln tons for July 1.

Competitive pricing could provide India with an additional advantage. The minimum support price for wheat for FY 2026/27 is equivalent to around $268/t, compared with an international wheat price of about $303/t in May, representing a difference of roughly $35/t.

ASSOCHAM sees Bangladesh as the most promising destination for Indian wheat. The country imported around 6.7 mln tons in 2024/25. India could also expand shipments to Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Morocco and the Philippines. This opportunity is becoming increasingly relevant amid disruptions to Black Sea supplies, which have already prompted Asian buyers to step up purchases of Australian and Argentine wheat.

At the same time, strengthening India’s position among major global wheat exporters will require a predictable export policy, improved logistics, storage infrastructure and quality control. ASSOCHAM believes India could significantly expand its role in global wheat trade as world production is expected to decline and major importers increasingly seek to diversify their suppliers.

Tags: export, grain export, wheat, India, global market