In March, Ukraine exported 524 thousand tons of sunflower oil, the largest volume during the war

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2022/23 MY Ukraine exported 3.2 mln tonnes of sunflower oil out of 4 mln tonnes forecasted by USDA for this season, including 524 thsd tonnes in March, which is 29% higher than in February (118 thsd tonnes) and the highest monthly exports since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

ShareUA potential forecasts the export of sunflower oil from Ukraine in 2022/23 MY at 4.5 mln tonnes, while USDA estimates the export at 4 mln tonnes. In order to reach such figures, during April-August 2023, Ukraine will need to export another 1.3 mln tonnes of oil, or 260 thsd tonnes per month.

Given the sharp drop in global prices, Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports will decline in the following months compared to March, but the forecasts of 4 and 4.5 mln tons look quite realistic.

Exports of sunflower seeds in March increased by 34 thousand tons to 199 thousand tons compared to February, primarily due to uncertainty over the extension of the grain agreement, which was formally due to expire on March 19. Another reason was the low competition between processors, which made the export of seeds profitable, despite the current restrictions.

In 2022/23 MY, Ukraine has already exported 1.8 mln tonnes of sunflower out of 2.65 mln tonnes forecasted by USDA and 2-2.5 mln tonnes by local analysts.

Since sunflower oil exports have already reached 80% of the USDA forecast, while sunflower exports are only 68%, processors still have a chance to increase processing volumes and prevent the export of raw materials for processing to neighboring Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary.

In Russia, thanks to a good harvest of oilseeds, exports of vegetable oils increased sharply compared to last year, in particular rapeseed oil by 43%, soybean oil by 45%, and sunflower oil by 18%. The main buyers of Russian oil were Turkey and China, which increased its purchases by 62%. In addition, against the background of blocking supplies from Ukraine, Russia increased oil exports to India, Iran and Egypt, which is a confirmation of Russia’s economic war against Ukraine.

In March, sunflower prices in Russia decreased by 25% (-37% for the year), which raised the issue of temporary abolition of export duties on sunflower, which will allow to intensify its exports and collapse prices in the markets of Turkey and Bulgaria.

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, sunflower, export, soybean oil, rapeseed oil