In 2024/25 MY corn supplies from the key exporting countries will decrease, but the volumes will remain high

In 2024/25 MY, the corn supplies from the key exporting countries of the Black Sea region are expected to decrease, as they lost a significant part of their corn production potential after the July heat wave. But the volumes will remain historically high, ASAP Agri reports.

At the same time, demand from some major buyers may be restrained. The USDA expects China’s imports in 2024/25 MY to reach 23 mln tonnes, which is the same as in the previous year.

“The demand from the EU is questionable. Now USDA estimates it at 18 mln tonnes, compared to 20.5 mln tonnes in the previous year. However, the recent reduction of the harvest forecast by the European Commission by 1.9 mln tonnes per month to 62.9 mln tonnes may lead to the upward revision of the EU import forecast,” – the analysts said.

ASAP Agri notes that it is also important for Ukraine to see the demand from Egypt and Turkey. For Egypt, the current USDA forecast is 8 mln tonnes for 2024/25 MY, which is 7% more than last year. In turn, Turkey may reduce imports by 40% yoy to 1.8 mln tonnes.

Tags: export, Black Sea region, Ukraine, corn