IGC trims corn production forecast

Source:  WORLD-GRAIN.com

Due to rising disease and drought stress in the Southern Hemisphere, the International Grains Council (IGC) revised its 2024-25 global corn production forecast lower by 7 million tonnes from its projection in March.

Despite the month-on-month reduction, the projected corn output of 1.226 billion tonnes would still be a record, topping last year’s all-time high by 2%, the IGC said in its April 18 Grain Market Report.

The outlook for production of total grains (wheat and coarse grains) was lowered by 10 million tonnes from March to 2.322 billion tonnes, but it would still be a record.

The IGC attributed the lower month-on-month total grains production forecast to “a smaller carry-in” and “a smaller US (corn) figure.”

Global wheat output for 2024-25 is projected at 798 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from the previous month and 9 million tonnes higher than last year’s total. If realized, it would be the second largest wheat crop on record behind 803 million tonnes in 2022-23.

The new projection for total grains carryover stocks was reduced by 9 million tonnes from last month to 592 million. However, it still would be slightly higher than the 2023-24 total (591 million), stopping an eight-year slide.

The IGC projects a 2% decline in world trade in the total grains category to 418 million tonnes, “mainly tied to reduced wheat and (corn) flows.”

The IGC said this year’s soybean crop is expected to top last year’s record output by 3.3%, reaching 403 million tonnes. It also forecast record consumption (404 million), trade (172 million) and carryover stocks (75 million) in 2024-25.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index was slightly lower from the March projection, weighed by net declines in soybeans, rice and wheat. The April price index of 224 is 21% lower than the same month last year.

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