IGC expects world grain stocks to decline

As consumption outpaces production year on year, global ending stocks of grains for the 2024-25 marketing year are forecast to fall to a 10-year low, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).

In its monthly grain market report released on November 21, IGC revised total ending stocks of cereals (wheat, corn and other coarse crops) down by 8 million tons to 576 million tons, down 3.5% from a year earlier.

“Cereal production is now estimated at 2.311 billion tons, down 4 million from last month, mainly due to lower forecasts for barley and wheat,” the IGC said. “World grain consumption is forecast to increase by 4 million tons (from the previous month) due to higher production in feed, food and industrial raw materials.”

Wheat carryover stocks are projected to decline year-on-year by 9 million tons, while corn stocks are projected to decline by 10 million tons.

IGC forecasts total cereal exports to decline year-on-year by 8% to 419 million tons. If that happens, it would be the lowest in six years.

Soybean production was revised 2 million tons lower from the previous month, but is still expected to rise 6% year-on-year to a record 419 million tons, the IGC said. With consumption rising 5% to 408 million tons (also an all-time high), world ending stocks of soybeans are projected to rise to a record 82 million tons in 2024-25.

With the improved outlook for India, analysts revised upward the forecast for world rice production for 2024-25 by 4 million tons to a record 535 million tons.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index was unchanged from last month at 223 points, down 13% from 2023-24. Most of the year-on-year decline was due to a 13% drop in the rice subindex and a 20% drop in the soybean subindex.

Tags: grain, stocks