History points to weak chances of summer price recovery in corn market

Corn markets are likely to face continued pressure in the coming months, with historical patterns suggesting limited prospects for a sustained price increase during the summer season. Analysts note that seasonal dynamics often weigh on futures prices when crop conditions remain favorable.

University of Minnesota Extension grain market economist Ed Usset reviewed December corn futures behavior dating back to 1990. According to his analysis, prices typically fall by 12–14% from the May peak to the June low, highlighting a recurring seasonal downturn in the market.

Usset explained that over nearly four decades, such sharp declines have occurred in roughly one out of every two years. He added that the early summer period is often challenging for prices, especially when crop development is progressing well and market participants factor in expectations of strong yields.

The study also shows that recovery back to May highs is relatively rare. In cases where a similar decline occurred, corn futures regained earlier peak levels in July or August only about one out of every six years, indicating historically limited odds of a strong price rebound this summer.

Tags: corn, prices