Heat and storms reduce Pakistan’s wheat crop outlook

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for Pakistan’s 2026/27 wheat production to 29 mln tons after late-season heat stress and severe storms reduced the expected harvest by about 680 thsd tons. The revised outlook matches the previous season’s production but is nearly 2.5 mln tons below the 2024/25 crop.

Despite tighter supplies and higher domestic wheat prices, Pakistan continues to ban both wheat imports and exports. However, the government is closely monitoring market conditions and may lift the import ban later in the current marketing year. According to the USDA, domestic wheat flour prices increased by around 38% between July 2025 and January 2026.

The USDA also reduced its rice production forecast for Pakistan from 9.6 mln tons to 9.1 mln tons, mainly due to a decline in planted area. Water shortages, rising energy costs, and higher production expenses have discouraged farmers from expanding rice cultivation, while yields are expected to remain close to the recent average.

Pakistan’s rice exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are projected at 4.7 mln tons, down from 5.1 mln tons in the previous season. Exports have been affected by instability in the Persian Gulf region, the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and stronger competition from India.

To improve export logistics, Pakistan has opened six new overland trade corridors to move containers from the ports of Karachi, Gwadar, and Port Qasim. Exporters are also expanding shipments to Central Asian and African markets, although border bottlenecks, weak transport infrastructure, administrative hurdles, and security concerns continue to limit trade growth.