Grains mixed in morning trading. September 27, 2024
Grains are mixed to start the Friday session. December corn has traded in a nickel range and is up 2¢ at $4.15. November soybeans have traded in a 14¢ range and are up 7¢ at $10.47. Wheat is 4¢ to 7¢ lower, as the news of Russian dryness in winter wheat area is not enough to sustain a rally.
Soybean oil posted a 16% rally from the September 16 low at 38.64 to the high hit yesterday at 44.86. The Thursday high was within 14 ticks of the 100-day moving average. The last time soybean oil was above the 100-day average was in early July.
The charts rolled over in favor of the bears yesterday after failing to break above the key moving average resistance. The next level of support for December soybean oil is near 41.00. The global demand for oil products has been on a roller coaster in the last month, as major importers in Asia look to secure their needs.
Livestock futures are mixed to start the day. Feeder cattle are up $1.00 to $1.50, while live cattle are up 50¢ to 80¢. Cash cattle traded at $185.00 late yesterday; as of this morning bids are $184.00 to $185.00, while offers are $187.00.
With the October live cattle contract trading near $184.90 this morning, the cash and the futures have converged as we head into the final days of September.
Lean hogs are quiet this morning, with futures trading 10¢ to 50¢ lower. The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report yesterday afternoon was neutral vs. market expectations.
Over the coming weeks, traders will focus on domestic demand from grocery stores and restaurants; recent trends show declining demand in the U.S. weekly export sales. Those will be watched closely for any signs that global demand increases, with recent changes to monetary policy in a couple of important countries the U.S. does business with.
The outside markets are mixed this morning after a round of economic reports yesterday. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.27 at 100.02, which is up slightly after breaking below 100 around 8 a.m. this morning. Traders believe the long-term trend for the U.S. dollar will remain bearish, as the Federal Reserve works in further rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
The crude oil market is steady at $67.46 after yesterday’s big slide lower. The next major level of support is the September 10 low at $64.61.
Will the stock market hold the record level it has reached this week? The S&P and Dow Jones futures currently are up 8 and 212 points, respectively.
Worth noting is China took massive steps to support its stock market this week. The level of liquidity the Chinese central bank injected this week matched levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. This story needs to be watched closely.
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