Global sunflower oil market is losing volumes from the EU and the Black Sea region

OilWorld (Germany) analysts are recording changes in the global structure of sunflower oil export flows. While Argentina is increasing record export volumes, traditional leaders—Europe and the Black Sea region—have experienced production declines. This is due to downward revisions to sunflower harvest estimates in key producing countries.

In January-October 2025, Argentina’s sunflower oil exports peaked at 1.36 million tonnes, the best figure in recent years. This has allowed the country to strengthen its position in the global market.

Despite some difficulties due to heavy rains and delays in the sowing campaign, analysts are confident of continued growth in Argentine exports in 2026.

Meanwhile, the situation is reversed for the European Union, Ukraine, and Russia. Sunflower harvest and processing estimates have been further reduced.

The global sunflower oil production forecast for 2025/26 has been lowered to 22 million tonnes, a decrease of half a million tonnes from the previous estimate. Global annual growth is expected to be modest, at around 1 million tonnes.

Cutting production and low inventories in traditional producing regions are leading to significant structural shifts. The main sales markets—the EU, Turkey, and India, which together account for approximately 50% of global imports—are forecast to increase purchases by at least 1-1.1 million tonnes. Meanwhile, countries in the Middle East and North Africa, facing a sunflower oil shortage, will have to shift more actively to soybean and palm oil.

Total global sunflower oil exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 14.8 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.5 million tonnes.

Analysts note that the key issue is the shortage of raw materials for processing plants in the Northern Hemisphere. Exports are expected to decline by another 0.3-0.4 million tons in the final quarter of 2025. As a result, sunflower oil prices for deliveries in the coming periods remain strong and trade at a premium to other vegetable oils on the European market.

Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, EU, prices, Black Sea region, India, Argentina