Global sunflower oil exports to decline amid Black Sea supply disruptions

The global sunflower oil market is expected to face a decline in export supplies toward the end of 2026, despite a large sunflower seed harvest in major producing countries. According to Germany-based analysts Oil World, global sunflower oil exports are forecast at around 3.96 mln tons in September–December, compared with 4.46 mln tons during the same period last year. Given the abundant sunflower seed crop, potential export volumes could have reached 5.1 mln tons.

Logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region remain the main factor limiting global trade, with shipment difficulties expected to persist at least until December. According to analysts, Ukraine is projected to export only 950 thsd tons of sunflower oil in September–December, down from 1.37 mln tons a year earlier. Meanwhile, Russian exports are forecast at 1.05 mln tons, compared with 1.48 mln tons during the corresponding period last year.

As a result, combined sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia during the first four months of the MY 2026/27 could decline to approximately 2 mln tons. This would be around 800 thsd tons below last year’s level and the lowest volume in 11 years. The reduction in supplies from two major exporters is creating new opportunities for alternative suppliers and reshaping international vegetable oil trade flows.

Argentina could become one of the main beneficiaries of this shift as the country continues to expand sunflower seed crushing. Oil World forecasts that Argentine sunflower oil exports will reach a record 600–620 thsd tons in September–December. Sunflower seed processing is also expected to increase in Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. Bulgaria is already expanding its sunflower oil exports, while higher domestic crushing volumes in Turkey are expected to reduce the country’s dependence on imported sunflower oil.

However, additional supplies from alternative origins are unlikely to fully offset the decline in Black Sea exports. Reduced sunflower oil availability could encourage major importers, particularly India and China, to increase purchases of other vegetable oils. Palm oil is expected to benefit the most from this shift, with demand potentially strengthening in the final months of 2026 as global vegetable oil trade patterns continue to change.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, Bulgaria, Turkey, export, Romania