Global sugar surplus 2026/2027 will decrease to 1.1 mln tons

Czarnikow International analysts lowered their estimate of the global sugar surplus in the MY 2026/27 to 1.1 million tonnes amid the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon on sugarcane production in India, Thailand and Brazil.

According to Czarnikow report, the reduction in the forecast of the global sugar surplus in 2026/27 amounted to 300 thousand tonnes, compared to the last forecast in March. This is also significantly lower than the 3.4 million tonnes forecasted in February.

Global sugar production in MY 2026/2027 is estimated at 180.4 million tonnes, which is 200 thousand tonnes less than it was forecasted in March. Global sugar consumption is expected to reach 179.3 million tonnes, up 100,000 tonnes from the previous estimate.

According to Czarnikow, El Niño typically brings hotter and drier weather to India and Thailand, which could negatively impact sugarcane production. In the central-southern region of Brazil, El Niño typically causes excess rainfall, which could slow sugarcane processing.

According to Czarnikow, global sugar production in the current MY 2025/26 (October-September) will reach 184.1 million tonnes, the second highest record level. The forecast for sugar production in Thailand increased from 11.5 to 12 million tonnes. In India, sugar production is expected at slightly less than 28 million tonnes. At the same time, the forecast for the global sugar balance surplus in MY 2025/26 was reduced to 5.8 million tonnes compared to 8.3 million tonnes forecasted in February.

Tags: sugar