Global soybean production will reach a record level – IGC

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts the record soybean production in MY 2024/25 at 418 mln tonnes. This is up 5% compared to the previous season (396 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24). The main crop growth is expected in the US and Brazil.

“Given the growth of soybean consumption in the feed, food and industrial segments, the record processing is expected, and stocks will reach a new high of 82 mln tonnes, up 11% year-on-year,” – the IGC report, published on February 20, says.

However, the overall forecast for global grain production (wheat and coarse grains) in MY 2024/25 has been lowered by 3 million tons compared to the January estimate, to 2.301 billion tons. If the forecast comes true, this figure will fall slightly short of last year’s record harvest (2.309 billion tons). The main reason for the adjustment is a deterioration in the prospects for corn production in South America, as well as a decrease in the sorghum harvest.

According to the IGC forecasts, the consumption of grains in MY 2024/25 will amount to 2.334 billion tons, which is a record high. At the same time, the ending grain stocks may decrease by 5% to 576 mln tons, which will be the lowest level in the last decade.

According to the Council’s estimates, global grain trade will decline by 1 million tons compared to last month, mainly due to a decrease in imports of sorghum and wheat to China. Corn acreage is expected to increase in the new season, particularly among major exporting countries.

The forecast for the rice supply and demand balance remains almost unchanged from the January report. Record production, consumption, and trade in this crop are expected. At the same time, the  IGC Grains and Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI) remained almost at the level of the previous month (221 points). Although grain export prices increased, rice and soybean prices mostly declined, resulting in an overall decrease in the GOI by 2% yoy.

Tags: soybean, crop forecast