Global soybean prices are putting pressure on the Ukrainian market

The global soybean market continues to be under pressure from increased supply from South America and expectations of a record harvest in the 2026/27 season. An additional negative factor was the sharp drop in oil prices, which caused a collapse in soybean oil quotes in Chicago, which were near multi-year highs just a few weeks ago.

Over the past week, July soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.9% to $406.8/t, down 6.9% from a month ago. Meanwhile, July soybean oil futures lost another 5% over the week to $1,530/t, and have already fallen 13.7% since the beginning of June.

Market pressure is also being exacerbated by favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Ahead of the USDA’s plantings report, expected on June 30, market participants are predicting that actual soybean acreage may be higher than projected in March estimates.

According to Oil World’s forecast, global soybean production in the 2026/27 MY season will reach 441.2 million tons, which will exceed the record figure of 2025/26 MY (429.2 million tons) by 12 million tons.

In particular, an increase in production is expected:

• in the USA – up to 121 million tons versus 115.99 million tons in 2025/26 MY;
• in China — up to 21.2 (21) million tons;
• in India — up to 10.2 (9.2) million tons;
• in Ukraine – up to 5.63 (5.5) million tons.

In Ukraine, weather conditions also remain favorable for crop development, but the area under soybeans has practically not changed and amounts to about 2 million hectares, so a significant increase in production in the new season is not currently expected.

Export demand for soybeans at Ukrainian ports remains minimal. At the same time, demand prices for non-GMO soybeans from EU buyers decreased by another $15/t over the week to $460–465/t for delivery to the western border, which is associated with a decrease in prices for soybean meal on the European market.

The lack of active exports has already begun to affect the domestic market. Ukrainian processors have reduced purchase prices for GM soybeans from the maximum levels of 22,500–23,000 UAH/t to 22,000–22,200 UAH/t or $430–435/t excluding VAT with delivery to the factory.

Prices for non-GM soybeans are still around 23,000 UAH/t with delivery to processing plants, however, a further decrease in the cost of soybean meal is creating additional pressure on this market segment.

Demand prices for Ukrainian soybean meal also continue to decline. While deliveries in May-June were contracted at $400–410/t, prices for July deliveries to the western border are already $385–390/t.

An additional pressure factor will be the beginning of the rapeseed processing season, which traditionally reduces the demand for soybeans by processing enterprises. Under such conditions, it is advisable for producers to intensify sales of soybean residues from the old harvest until domestic prices decrease further.

According to AgRural, soybean acreage in Brazil will increase for the 20th consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, reaching a record 49.006 million hectares, up 0.9% from the previous season. However, further developments will largely depend on the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, which may adjust the crop structure in the fall depending on the amount of precipitation.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean