Global rice prices reach nearly two-year high amid El Niño concerns

Global rice prices have climbed to their highest level in almost two years amid unfavorable weather conditions in Asia caused by a powerful El Niño event. As of November 4, 2026, the export price of Thai 5% broken white rice reached $499/t, its highest level since December 2024. According to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, prices are rising amid growing concerns over tightening supplies in the global market.

The main driver of the price increase has been drought across South and Southeast Asia, where more than half of the world’s rice is grown. The powerful El Niño event has caused rainfall shortages in several major producing countries, including India, the world’s largest rice exporter. According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in the MY 2026/27 could decline for the first time in more than a decade. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also expects global output to fall.

Rice prices are rising against the broader trend in grain markets, where wheat and corn futures have been declining. Rough rice futures on the Chicago exchange have surged by more than 80% since the beginning of 2026, reflecting growing concerns about future supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring weather conditions in major producing countries, as the continued development of El Niño could negatively affect yields and export potential.

In Thailand, the greatest risks are associated with the off-season rice crop, which depends heavily on irrigation. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), water shortages could limit production in the next growing cycle. Meanwhile, adverse weather conditions in India and other Asian countries are creating additional uncertainty for global importers, particularly those heavily dependent on rice shipments from Southeast Asia.

Higher rice prices are already beginning to affect consumers. In the Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, rice prices rose by 21% in October 2026 compared with the same month last year. Further increases in global quotations could intensify food inflation in countries across Asia, Africa and the Middle East, where rice is a major dietary staple. Market developments in the coming months will largely depend on weather conditions, new crop volumes and the export policies of key suppliers.

Tags: weather conditions, rice, global market, Эль-Ниньо