Global grain production to fall by 69 mln tons after record harvest

Global grain production in the 2026/27 marketing year is forecast to decline to 2.42 billion tons, down 69 mln tons, or 2.7%, from the record crop harvested a season earlier. Even so, it would still be the second-largest grain harvest on record, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).

The world harvested about 2.49 billion tons of grain in 2025/26. The projected decline is mainly driven by lower corn and wheat production, while smaller crops are also expected for oats, sorghum and rye.

Global corn production is forecast at 1.306 billion tons, down 37 mln tons from the previous season. Wheat output is expected to decline by 23 mln tons to 821 mln tons. Compared with the June report, the IGC’s forecasts for both crops remain largely unchanged.

Despite lower production, global grain consumption is expected to reach a new record high. Supported by strong demand, world ending stocks are projected to decline by 26 mln tons to 610 mln tons, tightening the global grain balance.

Global grain trade in 2026/27 is forecast at 450 mln tons, down 17 mln tons from the previous season. The decline is mainly attributed to lower wheat and barley shipments to the Middle East, North Africa and several Asian countries.

According to the IGC, large exportable supplies from the Black Sea region should continue supporting global grain trade. However, export prospects have become less predictable due to the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine war and the resulting disruptions to export logistics.

Oilseed markets are expected to follow the opposite trend. Global soybean production is projected to reach a record 441 mln tons, up 10 mln tons year-on-year, driven primarily by larger crops in Brazil and the United States. Global soybean consumption is forecast at 445 mln tons, while soybean trade is expected to increase by 2% on stronger demand from Asian countries.

Reflecting tighter grain supplies and firm demand, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) has risen by 7% since the June report. As of July 2026, the index was also nearly 12% higher than a year earlier, highlighting continued upward price pressure across global agricultural markets.

Tags: barley, prices, soybean, wheat, crop forecast, corn