Global corn deficit could be the largest in more than 30 years — Karen Braun

Global grain supplies are becoming less comfortable despite another large U.S. corn crop. According to Karen Braun, Chief Market Analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge and former Reuters agricultural columnist, global corn consumption in 2026/27 could exceed production by nearly 30 mln tons. USDA estimates suggest this would be the largest deficit in more than three decades.

The market is already responding to the tighter balance. Corn, wheat and soybean futures have risen significantly in recent months, while Chicago corn alone jumped a record 16% in August. The main problem is not so much the United States, but rather shrinking exportable supplies from other key producing countries.

Combined corn and wheat production among major exporting countries is forecast to decline sharply in 2026/27. The year-on-year drop could be the largest in volume terms since 1993/94. At the same time, global wheat production, like corn, is also expected to fall short of consumption, further reducing the market’s supply buffer.

Karen Braun also points to a long-term shift in planting patterns. Over the past 25 years, harvested area for oilseeds among major exporters has more than doubled, while grain acreage has increased by only about 5%. Corn area has expanded substantially, but wheat acreage has contracted, meaning yield growth has had to carry an increasing share of the burden of meeting rising demand.

Brazil represents another potential risk. The country is still expected to harvest a record soybean crop, but soybean area growth could slow to the weakest pace in 20 years due to lower margins, expensive credit and high fertilizer costs. A strong El Niño could also threaten yields. In corn, Brazil is increasing domestic consumption as ethanol production expands, limiting how much of its larger crops is available for export.

Braun stresses that the situation does not yet resemble the severe grain shortage of 2012. The U.S. still has a relatively comfortable corn buffer, Brazil remains capable of producing record crops, and wheat is harvested in different regions throughout the year. However, global grain stocks are already much less comfortable than a year ago, while competition for acreage in 2027 could intensify. If U.S. farmers increase wheat plantings after the recent price recovery, repeating another very large corn area could become more difficult just when the global balance may need it most.

Tags: USA, corn