Global corn and soybean prices could enter a new growth cycle in 2027

Global corn and soybean markets could enter a new price growth cycle in 2027 amid declining inventories, high fertilizer costs and stronger demand from the biofuel industry, according to S&P Global. Global stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat have been declining since May, making markets more sensitive to weather problems and disruptions in key exporting regions.

Biofuel demand is emerging as one of the main drivers for the soybean complex. Following US EPA decisions on future renewable fuel obligations, Chicago soybean oil futures rose 7.2% over three trading sessions. The December contract reached 72.63 cents/lb on September 1, while soybean futures climbed to their highest level in nearly three years.

High fertilizer and energy prices could provide additional support to corn. Corn requires significant amounts of nitrogen fertilizer, meaning persistently high input costs could encourage US farmers to shift acreage toward soybeans, while Brazilian producers may reduce fertilizer application or planted area. As a result, global exportable corn supplies could decline in 2027.

Disruptions to Black Sea supplies are adding further pressure. Ukraine and russia remain major suppliers of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, meaning logistical problems affect the broader grain and oilseed complex. In particular, reduced availability of sunflower oil could increase demand for alternative vegetable oils, especially soybean oil.

Further market developments will largely depend on China and weather conditions in South America. Continued strong Chinese purchases of US soybeans, combined with potential crop losses in Brazil or Argentina due to El Niño, could further tighten global stocks. Under this scenario, corn and soybean prices could continue rising in 2027, although high fertilizer, fuel and logistics costs would limit producers’ profitability.

Tags: prices, soybean, global market, corn