Frost and rains threaten Argentina’s potential record wheat harvest

Late-season frosts and heavy rainfall last week have put Argentina’s wheat crop — once expected to reach record levels — at risk. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), the frost affected southern growing regions where wheat is currently at a vulnerable stage of development. Experts are still assessing the extent of crop damage caused by the sudden cold snap and accompanying storms.

BAGE noted that high soil moisture and elevated humidity levels may have helped reduce the impact of frost, but the real extent of losses will only become clear in the coming weeks. For now, the exchange maintains its 2025/26 production forecast at 22 million tonnes from a 6.7-million-hectare harvested area. That’s well above last season’s 18.6 million tonnes and just below the 2021/22 record of 22.4 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain Exchange issued an even more optimistic projection of 23 million tonnes, matching Argentina’s all-time high. The revision is supported by highly favorable soil-moisture conditions following above-average winter and early-spring rains. Although excessive rainfall reduced the total planted area by around 400,000 hectares, yield potential across most regions remains exceptionally strong.

As of late October, 88% of wheat fields were rated in good to excellent condition, up sharply from just 38% a year ago. Soil moisture was reported as optimal or adequate on 76% of cropland, while excessive moisture affected only 5% — a notable improvement from last year’s levels. These conditions create a solid foundation for grain filling, though wet weather has slowed early harvesting progress.

The wheat harvest began in mid-October, but by the end of the month only 8.4% of the area had been harvested. Activity is expected to accelerate through November, with peak harvest in December. In southern provinces such as Buenos Aires and La Pampa, yields are projected to exceed 4 tonnes per hectare. Meanwhile, BAGE forecasts Argentina’s barley crop at 5.3 million tonnes, with an average yield of 4.08 t/ha, slightly above last season’s performance.

Tags: wheat, Argentina, crop forecast